Комментарии: Приближаясь к открытию Европы, сигналы слабые. Поэтому мы предлагаем остаться сегодня вне рынка. Ниже приведен анализ текущего сантимента по FX Majors для вашего рассмотрения.
Friday’s sharp renewal of selling pressure ensured that this week’s call was a negative one. That view has been partially confirmed by modest selling Monday, in quiet trading. The lack of momentum means today’s signals for sentiment cannot be strong, especially as most of Monday’s downside was regained by the close. Nonetheless the underlying tone remains assessed as bearish and so, this morning’s call is a Cautious Sell but leaving room to Sell any Rally to 1.1630, intraday Marabuzo line. The risk is Friday’s 1.1659 open with an immediate target of 1.1587. A move through that point then exposes sentiment to 1.1568, key Marabuzo line created 16 weeks ago, and 1.1548.
Friday’s indecisive stalling of selling pressure translated into strong profit taking Monday. Gains of close to a big figure took CABLE through Thursday’s Marabuzo line and towards the key 13 day mvg avg. This move is assessed as a temporary one, despite aggressive upside, while prices close below the key average. In view of this but allowing for a lack of an immediate sell signal, we are square from the open but look to Sell below 1.3124 (Stop 1.3170) or 1.3201 Rally (Stop 1.3246, Thursday’s open). Targets below 1.3124, yesterday’s Marabuzo line, are 1.3079, this week’s open, then last week’s 1.3040 bottom.
In line with this week’s bearish outlook, EURGBP reversed initial Asian profit taking yesterday. This led to a decline of ¾ big figure – a move that took the cross below both the 13 day mvg avg and Thursday’s Marabuzo line and to our first weekly target at .8809. The scope of the move means sentiment is overstretched but although there is strong potential for a positive reaction, this morning’s call is a modest Sell from the open but leaving room to Sell any Rally to .8844. The risk is .8876, yesterday’s open, with an immediate target of .8792. A move through that point then exposes sentiment to .8768, Thursday’s low, or even towards this month’s .8733 base.
This week’s signals for USDJPY have switched to bearish and to selling rallies and these are so far being confirmed as Monday’s initial gains of ¾ Big Fig were completely given up. While the pullback has come following a fresh 8 month high at 114.73 and is mildly negative, prices have posted a 2nd higher daily low & high in a row which is mildly positive. Signals for Tuesday are subsequently not clear, but there remains a negative bias and the outlook is to stay square on the open and to sell the rally at 114.42, yesterday’s European high with a stop loss at 114.83, Monday’s overall top, or to sell down through 113.40, the 31st Oct Marabuzo line with a stop loss at 114.07, this week’s open. Targets below 113.40 are to 112.95, last week’s low and 112.66, the last 3 week Marabuzo line.
Despite last week’s consolidation coming from close to the 50 day average rate, as well as to 131.11, a 50% pullback to this year’s gains, this week’s signals for EURJPY have continued to point lower and to selling rallies. These are so far being confirmed, as Monday’s initial gains of ½ Big Fig were completely given up. This is negative, but with sentiment improving in Asia this morning the outlook for Tuesday is more cautious and is to stay square on the open and to sell the rally at 132.80, the 13 day average rate with a stop loss at 133.33, a 62% recovery to the losses posted since October’s high, or to sell down through 131.87, the 31st Oct opening trade with a stop loss at 132.40. Targets below 131.87 are to 131.45/50, October’s lows and 131.11, the 50% pullback Fibonacci.
For a 5th day from the last 7, USDCHF was unable to maintain levels above 1.0000. Selling interest emerged at similar levels yesterday – although the net setback was a limited one with the 13 day line and a Marabuzo line created Oct 26th untested. This means that immediate signals for sentiment cannot be strong but it is the weakness of the setback that keeps our focus on the topside. With this in mind but in the absence of a clear buy signal we take a cautious view and are square at the open but look to Buy above 1.0008(Stop .9969, Asian low) or .9947 Dip, Thursday’s low (Stop .9915). Targets above 1.0008 are last week’s 1.0038 top and 1.0067.
Contrary to this week’s bullish forecast, initial gains failed short of 1.2800. The turn in intraday sentiment to negative took USDCAD back to retest the 13 day mvg avg and the Marabuzo line created Oct 25th. A 4th down day in a row was posted by the levels mentioned above were not clearly breached. That means immediate signals for sentiment conflict and caution needs to be applied. Nonetheless the intraday tone is assessed as bearish and so, this morning’s call is a Sell but leaving room to Sell any Rally to 1.2747, intraday Marabuzo line. The risk is yesterday’s 1.2783 top with an immediate target of 1.2683. A move through that point then exposes sentiment to 1.2659 and 1.2628, the open from 2 weeks ago.
This week’s signals for the AUDUSD have continued to point lower, but with prices consolidating from close to .7633, a 62% pullback to the entire May-Sep gains the call is to also sell into any bounce. Monday’s trading saw sentiment trade sideways however, the market closing with an up-day but inside Friday’s range. Signals for Tuesday remain negative but with a more cautious bias and the call is to stay square on the open and to sell the rally at .7730, last week’s high with a stop loss at .7791, the 24th Oct Marabuzo line, or to sell down through .7625, October’s low with a stop loss at .7680. Targets below .7625 are to .7571, July’s base and .7520.